Methodology

The 2027 projection blends each hitter's expected wOBA (xwOBA) with actual wOBA, then pulls the result toward the league average. Hitters with fewer plate appearances are pulled harder. Current settings: v1 (w=0.8, k=300).

Rebound Score = projected wOBA − actual wOBA, split into two parts:

• Luck: the share of the gap between expected and actual results (xwOBA − wOBA) that the projection keeps. It is scaled down by the xwOBA weight and by sample size, so it is smaller than the raw gap.
• Regression: the pull toward the league average (0.316 wOBA).

The Buy-Low tab lists hitters with positive Luck, largest first. The Sell-High tab lists hitters with negative Luck, most negative first. The Rebound tab ranks by the full Rebound Score and only includes hitters with 300+ PA. Ranks use unrounded values, so two players showing the same three-decimal number can hold different ranks.