Ryan Vilade

TB, age 28

Buy-Low: Not listed (Luck not positive)
Sell-High: Not listed (Luck not negative)
Rebound: Not ranked (under 300 PA)

Results matched contact quality (.327 wOBA, .327 xwOBA). Projected change −.006, all from regression toward the league average.

Results vs contact quality

wOBA (results): .327
xwOBA (contact): .327

Both bars start at zero. The vertical line marks the league average wOBA (.316).

Where the projected change comes from

Luck: .000

Luck .000

xwOBA .327 and wOBA .327 were close, so luck adds nothing.
+ Regression: −.006

Regression −.006

278 PA at a .327 wOBA pulls the projection −.006 toward the league average (.316). Fewer PA means a bigger pull.
= Proj. change: −.006

Proj. change −.006

Luck .000 plus regression −.006 = −.006, for a projected 2027 wOBA of .321.

The part of the projected change that comes from the gap between xwOBA and wOBA. Plus means contact beat results (unlucky). Minus means results beat contact (lucky). The pull toward the league average (.316). It is bigger when PA is low or wOBA is far from average.

2026 season totals

2026 season totals and 2027 projection
PA	278
wOBA	.327
xwOBA	.327
BA	.245
xBA	.252
SLG	.429
xSLG	.421
Proj. 2027 wOBA	.321
Proj. change	−.006
Luck	.000
Regression	−.006