Josh Smith

TOR, age 29

Buy-Low: Not listed (Luck not positive)
Sell-High: Not listed (Luck not negative)
Rebound: Not ranked (under 300 PA)

Results matched contact quality (.275 wOBA, .276 xwOBA). Projected change +.023, all from regression toward the league average.

Results vs contact quality

wOBA (results): .275
xwOBA (contact): .276

Both bars start at zero. The vertical line marks the league average wOBA (.316).

Where the projected change comes from

Luck: .000

Luck .000

xwOBA .276 and wOBA .275 were close, so luck adds nothing.
+ Regression: +.023

Regression +.023

243 PA at a .275 wOBA pulls the projection +.023 toward the league average (.316). Fewer PA means a bigger pull.
= Proj. change: +.023

Proj. change +.023

Luck .000 plus regression +.023 = +.023, for a projected 2027 wOBA of .298.

The part of the projected change that comes from the gap between xwOBA and wOBA. Plus means contact beat results (unlucky). Minus means results beat contact (lucky). The pull toward the league average (.316). It is bigger when PA is low or wOBA is far from average.

2026 season totals

2026 season totals and 2027 projection
PA	243
wOBA	.275
xwOBA	.276
BA	.203
xBA	.204
SLG	.321
xSLG	.320
Proj. 2027 wOBA	.298
Proj. change	+.023
Luck	.000
Regression	+.023