Alex Freeland

LAD, age 25

Buy-Low: Not listed (Luck not positive)
Sell-High: Not listed (Luck not negative)
Rebound: Not ranked (under 300 PA)

Results matched contact quality (.297 wOBA, .297 xwOBA). Projected change +.010, all from regression toward the league average.

Results vs contact quality

wOBA (results): .297
xwOBA (contact): .297

Both bars start at zero. The vertical line marks the league average wOBA (.316).

Where the projected change comes from

Luck: .000

Luck .000

xwOBA .297 and wOBA .297 were close, so luck adds nothing.
+ Regression: +.010

Regression +.010

269 PA at a .297 wOBA pulls the projection +.010 toward the league average (.316). Fewer PA means a bigger pull.
= Proj. change: +.010

Proj. change +.010

Luck .000 plus regression +.010 = +.010, for a projected 2027 wOBA of .307.

The part of the projected change that comes from the gap between xwOBA and wOBA. Plus means contact beat results (unlucky). Minus means results beat contact (lucky). The pull toward the league average (.316). It is bigger when PA is low or wOBA is far from average.

2026 season totals

2026 season totals and 2027 projection
PA	269
wOBA	.297
xwOBA	.297
BA	.234
xBA	.220
SLG	.325
xSLG	.340
Proj. 2027 wOBA	.307
Proj. change	+.010
Luck	.000
Regression	+.010