Marcelo Mayer

SF, age 24

Buy-Low: Not listed (Luck not positive)
Sell-High: Not listed (Luck not negative)
Rebound: Not ranked (under 300 PA)

Results matched contact quality (.258 wOBA, .257 xwOBA). Projected change +.032, all from regression toward the league average.

Results vs contact quality

wOBA (results): .258
xwOBA (contact): .257

Both bars start at zero. The vertical line marks the league average wOBA (.316).

Where the projected change comes from

Luck: .000

Luck .000

xwOBA .257 and wOBA .258 were close, so luck adds nothing.
+ Regression: +.032

Regression +.032

245 PA at a .258 wOBA pulls the projection +.032 toward the league average (.316). Fewer PA means a bigger pull.
= Proj. change: +.032

Proj. change +.032

Luck .000 plus regression +.032 = +.032, for a projected 2027 wOBA of .290.

The part of the projected change that comes from the gap between xwOBA and wOBA. Plus means contact beat results (unlucky). Minus means results beat contact (lucky). The pull toward the league average (.316). It is bigger when PA is low or wOBA is far from average.

2026 season totals

2026 season totals and 2027 projection
PA	245
wOBA	.258
xwOBA	.257
BA	.209
xBA	.196
SLG	.295
xSLG	.295
Proj. 2027 wOBA	.290
Proj. change	+.032
Luck	.000
Regression	+.032