Brice Matthews

HOU, age 25

Buy-Low: Not listed (Luck not positive)
Sell-High: Not listed (Luck not negative)
Rebound: Not ranked (under 300 PA)

Results matched contact quality (.260 wOBA, .261 xwOBA). Projected change +.032, all from regression toward the league average.

Results vs contact quality

wOBA (results): .260
xwOBA (contact): .261

Both bars start at zero. The vertical line marks the league average wOBA (.316).

Where the projected change comes from

Luck: .000

Luck .000

xwOBA .261 and wOBA .260 were close, so luck adds nothing.
+ Regression: +.032

Regression +.032

233 PA at a .260 wOBA pulls the projection +.032 toward the league average (.316). Fewer PA means a bigger pull.
= Proj. change: +.032

Proj. change +.032

Luck .000 plus regression +.032 = +.032, for a projected 2027 wOBA of .292.

The part of the projected change that comes from the gap between xwOBA and wOBA. Plus means contact beat results (unlucky). Minus means results beat contact (lucky). The pull toward the league average (.316). It is bigger when PA is low or wOBA is far from average.

2026 season totals

2026 season totals and 2027 projection
PA	233
wOBA	.260
xwOBA	.261
BA	.201
xBA	.193
SLG	.332
xSLG	.338
Proj. 2027 wOBA	.292
Proj. change	+.032
Luck	.000
Regression	+.032